摘要
本文通过计算滚动相关系数考察我国不同机构所使用的先行指标的领先特征,计算结果表明随着时间的推移,先行指标的先行特征出现了显著变化;从中选择出近期领先性显著且领先期稳定的几个先行指标,利用动态因子模型计算出先行景气指数,发现所得到的先行景气指数具有较强的经济预警功能;基于先行景气指数构建的模型的预测结果,表明先行指数对我国短期内的经济景气预测是比较可靠的。因此,应该不断改进先行指标的选择方法,选择出先行特征更优的先行指标,并合成先行指数,从而更好地发挥出先行指数的预警功能,保证我国经济平稳健康地发展。
This paper tries to study the leading property of the leading indicators chosen by different departments based on rolling correlation coefficient , finding that the leading property of the leading indicators changes significantly as time goes by .By choosing the leading indicators which have significant leading property and stable leading time , and based on dynamic factor model , it finds the leading index has great precautionary ability , and the forecasting outcome based on leading index is good at forecasting economic cycle in short time .Thus, the method of choosing leading indicators should be revised to choose the better leading indicators and compose the leading index , in order to play the early warning func-tion of leading index , ensuring the steady and healthy development of China′s economy .
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期15-20,共6页
Commercial Research
基金
中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目
项目编号:2013T60310
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目
项目编号:12YJC790184
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目
项目编号:13JJD790011
关键词
先行指数
经济周期波动
动态因子模型
leading index
business cycles fluctuation
dynamic factor model
