摘要
Banking institutions all over the world face significant challenge due to the cumulative loss due to defaults of borrowers of different types of loans. The cumulative default loss built up over a period of time could wipe out the capital cushion of the banks. The aim of this paper is to help the banks to forecast the cumulative loss and its volatility. Defaulting amounts are random and defaults occur at random instants of time. A non Markovian time dependent random point process is used to model the cumulative loss. The expected loss and volatility are evaluated analytically. They are functions of probability of default, probability of loss amount, recovery rate and time. Probability of default being the important contributor is evaluated using Hidden Markov modeling. Numerical results obtained validate the model.
