摘要
基于ARDL模型临界值检验的方法探讨我国城镇工资总额对经济增长的影响作用。临界值检验结果表明城镇工资总额与经济增长间存在长期均衡关系,长期关系方程和误差修正模型进一步表明无论是长期还是短期城镇工资总额对经济增长都有显著较大的正效应,即城镇工资总额增加能够有效的推动经济发展,应该采取实质性的措施来提高我国城镇工资收入总量,从而促进经济长期稳定增长。另外,研究也表明出口对经济增长的作用不明显,但能够对经济进行适当的降温,有利于中国经济的"软着陆";一定程度上也表明金融发展水平对经济增长有显著的长期正向影响。
This paper discusses the effects of China urban total wages on economic growth based on bounds testing approach. The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urban total wages and economic growth. Further, the long-term equilibrium equation and error correction model indicates wages have a large and significant positive effect on growth whether in a long time or just short period. Namely, urban total wages increase can effectively promote economic development. Therefore we should take substantive measures to improve total wages income of urban, and thus contributing to economic steady growth in the long-run. In addition, the study also shows that the effect of exports on economic growth is not obvious, but it can properly cool the economy, which could be conducive to China＇s economic ＂soft landing＂. Also, financial development, to some extent, may have a significant long-term positive effect on growth.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期95-101,共7页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871028)
