摘要
通过收集中国1990年、2000年和2010年第4次至第6次人口普查中的跨省人口迁移数据,在一个扩展的引力模型基础之上,运用面板数据模型对中国跨省人口迁移的影响因素进行实证检验。基于Hausman-Taylor估计的实证结果表明,中国大规模的人口迁移主要由4个方面的因素决定,分别是迁出省份的"推力"因素、迁入省份"拉力"因素、迁出省份人口迁移"能力"因素和迁出迁入省份人口迁移的"成本"因素。进一步的分析表明,影响中国人口跨省迁移前四位的决定因素依次是:迁出省份的人均GDP、迁出省份的总人口、迁入省份的人均GDP和迁移存量。由于中国人口迁移的动力因素仍然存在,而人口迁移的成本正在降低,中国将面临人口迁移规模不断扩大的压力,制定合理的人口迁移政策显得尤为重要。
Through collecting interprovincia[ migration data from Censuses of the 4th in 1990, the 5th in 2000 and the 6th in 2010, this paper empirically examines the factors of interprovincial migration in China based on an extended gravity model by panel data. According to the regression results of Hausman-Taylor estimation, there are four factors mainly affecting large-scale migration in China, respectively referring to ＂push＂ factor in origin province, ＂pull＂ factor in destination province, capacity factor of migrants and cost factor of moving out and in. Further analysis indicates that GDP per capita of origin province, population of origin province, ca- pacity of migrants of origin province, GDP per capita and migration stock of desti- nation province are four major determinants of China＇s inter-provincial population migration. Since the driving force of population migration still exist, and the migra- tion costs are decreasing, China will witness the pressure of ever-larger scale migra- tion, which requires the formulation of reasonable migration policy.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期83-98,共16页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目"人口老龄化经济增长效应理论与实证研究"
2013年度教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"老龄化对中国经济发展的影响及应对策略研究"(13JZD005)的资助
