摘要
通过对东昌府区ＰＲＥＤ系统特征与系统惯性增长的分析揭示制约ＰＲＥＤ系统协调发展与可持续农业发展的主要矛盾，在此基础上确立农业可持续发展的总方向，并有针对性地提出可持续农业发展的对策，主要包括：优化农业结构，促进农业可持续发展；促进农业市场化、企业化和专业化基地发展，推进农业产业化进程；加大盐碱地、中低产田挖潜改造，提高土地生产力；建立农业可持续发展的调控机制。
Dongchangfu County is a county of Liaocheng Area of Shandong Province and an agriculture area of north China and Huanghuaihai plain. It has large population and less developed economy, particularly rural economy is backward. With the development of 50 years in the past, it had formed four characteristics of PRED system: firstly, gross population has large scale and is increasing rapidly but is less-educated; secondly, natural resources such as mineral, water and energy are scare, land resources are main natural resources but are poor and less productive; thirdly, natural disasters such as drought, flood, saltization and alkalization had been better prevented from, but some of them still did great damages to the region; fourthly, with the rapid growth of economic, capital and technology inputs are less sufficient, it consumes large resources with large waste* According to the GM (1,1) model and statistic materials from 1978 to 1996, the prediction models of cultivated land, gross population, average cultivated land, agriculture population, regional GNP, water resources consumption and demand of capital were established. It has formed four paradoxical relations with PRED system. The first, population increase rapidly but cultivated land decrease continually; The second, water resources supply can not cater for the demand; The third, large area of less productive land and can not satisfy the desire of people wanted to produce more; The fourth, the inputs of capital and technology can not satisfy the demand of the rapid economic growth. Based on these problems, some countermeasures to the sustainable agriculture are put forth: (1 ) optimizing the agricultural structure, mainly through adjusting the structure of planting; (2) promoting agriculture development by intensification, capitalization, marketing, business and factory; (3) increasing land resources productivity; (4) establish the adjusting controlling system for sustainable agriculture development.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第4期358-363,共6页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目资助(编号49731040)
