摘要
为合理确定区域抗旱能力评价指标体系及其评价等级标准,在随机、模糊等不确定性影响因素下建立了有效的抗旱能力定量评价模型,利用基于加速遗传算法的模糊层次分析法和变异系数法分别计算了指标的主客观权重,建立了基于联系数的抗旱能力综合评价模型。该模型从样本、子系统、指标3个层次表达评价样本的抗旱能力,并采用置信度准则对评价结果进行了补充验证。运用该模型综合评价了安徽省17个地级市2007年的抗旱能力,提出了提高抗旱能力的建议。结果表明:①提高农业用水效率、改善种植结构是增强安徽省抗旱能力的有效途径之一;②抗旱能力建设必须在科学的指导下分阶段、有的放矢地进行,短期内应加强工程与非工程抗旱能力建设,长期抗旱能力建设主要是提高科技抗旱水平以及生态抗旱能力,实现人与自然的和谐共处。
In order to establish an evaluation index system and grade standards of district drought resistance ability reasonably,an effective quantita-tive evaluation model was built at a random and fuzzy uncertainty factors. The Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on Accelerating Genetic Algo-rithm and the coefficient variation method were used separately to calculate the subjective and objective weights of indicators. And the comprehensive drought resistance ability evaluation model based on coefficient number was built. The drought resistance ability of districts was expressed by EM-CN model through three levels of the samples,subsystems and indicators. And the evaluation results were supplemented and verified by Confidence Cri-terion. EM-CN model was applied to drought-resistance ability evaluation for 17 cities of Anhui Province in the year of 2007,and proposals were made on the basis of analyzing evaluation results to improve Anhui drought-resistance ability. The results show that：a）improving efficiency of agri-cultural water consumption and optimizing planting patterns are effective ways to enhance the drought resistance ability of Anhui Province;b）devel-opment of the ability should be under the guidance of science and in proper ways. In the short time,the project and non-project capacity of drought resistance should be strengthened further more,in the long time,improve the scientific and technological level and the role of ecosystem in drought resistance construction to realize person and natural harmonious coexist.
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2014年第3期52-57,共6页
Yellow River
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001043)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273081
51109052)
水利部重大基建前期项目
中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金资助项目(LPM2011002)
关键词
综合评价
联系数
集对分析
加速遗传算法
抗旱能力
安徽省
comprehensive evaluation
coefficient numbers
set pair analysis
accelerating genetic algorithm
drought resistance ability
Anhui Province
