摘要
准确的人口结构预测是未来经济发展的重要依据。论文采用人口-发展-环境模型(PDE),以第六次全国人口普查数据为基础,设定生育率低中高三种不同方案进行推演,预测了我国2015-2050年人口结构变化走势。结果显示:若实行较低的生育率方案,即维持现行计划生育政策不变,到2050年我国人口结构将呈现非常严重老龄化状态;若实行中等生育率方案,即实施二胎计划生育政策,我国人口结构老龄化趋势将会得到明显改善,到2030年之后我国人口结构将逐渐年轻化,呈成年型人口结构;若实行较高的生育率方案,即实施较二胎政策更宽松的计划生育方案,我国人口结构将发生根本性改变,人口结构符合年轻化人口结构的特征,但将带来大量的新增人口。比较三种不同的预测结果,基于我国国情,认为实施二胎生育政策比较理想。
Accurate population structure prediction is an important basis for the economic development. Based on our nation＇ s sixth national population census data, this paper forecasts the changes in the population structure from 2015 to 2050 based on 3 presupposed types of birth rates through the population-development- environment model （PDE） . Results show that： if the current family planning policy continues to keep the low birth rate, serious aging problem will arise in China＇ s population structure by 2050; if two-children family planning policy takes effect to moderately increase the birth rate, aging problem in China＇ s population structure will be curbed obviously, and adult type population structure will form with the increasing number of young people after 2030; if more than two children family planning policy is put into practice to reach a higher birth rate, dramatic changes will take place in China＇ s population structure, featured by the increasing number of younger people and a wave of new population growth. Against this background, three different forecast results suggest that the second birth control policy is the ideal one for our country.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期132-141,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"二次人口红利与经济持续增长路径研究"(编号:12BJL027)
教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目"后人口红利与经济增长后发优势培育研究"(编号:12YJA790100)
关键词
人口结构
预测
生育率
死亡率
population structure
forecast
birth rate
death rate
