摘要
大停电后的网架重构恢复过程涉及到大量空载线路的投运。针对当前网架重构方案运行风险评估对线路投运风险的建模与评价所存在的局限,以两状态马尔可夫过程模型为基础,以空载线路可能的合闸失败和合闸成功后的可能停运作为线路投运过程的主要不确定因素,建立采用模糊修复率和统计故障率的线路投运模型。进一步,通过基于可信性理论的模糊模拟求解得到线路投运模糊状态概率的期望值。最后,采用该模型对已有的重构方案线路投运风险评估框架进行拓展。针对IEEE 30节点系统已有重构方案的评估结果表明:利用该模型可得到与方案恢复过程相对应的线路投运风险的变化轨迹,可为调度人员选择恢复方案提供更加全面的决策辅助信息。
Network reconfiguration following the massive outage involves a large number of transmission lines that need to be switched on. Due to the drawback existing in modeling and evaluation of risk regarding restoring transmission lines, a model with the fuzzy repair rate and statistic failure rate for transmission lines’ restoration was proposed in this paper. Based on two-state Markov process, the model took into account main uncertain factors influencing the state of transmission lines, which included possible failure in switching on lines and following lines’ restoration. Further, the expected value of fuzzy state possibility for restoring transmission lines was solved by means of fuzzy simulation based on credibility theory. Finally, the model proposed was employed in facilitating the existing framework of operational risk assessment for restoring transmission lines according to a certain reconfiguration scheme. The application on schemes of reconstructing the IEEE 30-bus system indicates that the model could help dispatchers track the risk variation corresponding to each operation step during restoring transmission lines, which provides more comprehensive auxiliary information for dispatchers choosing restoration schemes.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第7期1124-1131,共8页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51077052)~~
关键词
大停电
网架重构
线路投运
运行风险评估
马尔可夫过程
可信性理论
模糊模拟
massive outage
network reconfiguration
transmission line restoration
operational risk assessment
Markov process
credibility theory
fuzzy simulation
