摘要
建筑业作为支柱产业，科学预测对其发展具有重要意义。单一评价模型因其各自局限性无法提高预测精确度，多种模型相结合评价较有优势，将无偏理论与模糊集合引入传统灰色马尔可夫预测模型，从拟合度和状态模糊集分类方面改进无偏灰色模糊马尔可夫模型。基于重庆1991～2011年建筑业产值，对其市场趋势进行预测分析，详细阐述该方法在建筑业产值预测中运用，定性分析预测结果，对建筑业发展历史及近期趋势进行检验和预判。
Construction industry is a pillar industry in China. Scientific prediction is of great significance to its development. Single evaluation model cannot improve the prediction accuracy because of its respective limitations. The evaluation through a variety of models combined together has an advantage,thus,the unbiased grey theory and fuzzy classification have been introduced into the traditional grey-Markov models. Unbiased grey-fuzzy Markov model is improved through the aspects of fitting degree and state classification of fuzzy set. Based on construction industry output value from 1991 to 2011 in Chongqing,this paper forecasts the market trend analysis,and elaborates the method used in the construction industry output value forecast. Through qualitative analysis of prediction results of the method,this paper gives a inspection and an anticipation about history and recent development of construction.
出处
《工程管理学报》
2014年第1期6-10,共5页
Journal of Engineering Management
关键词
无偏灰色模糊
马尔可夫链模型
建筑业预测
the unbiased grey-fuzzy
markov chain method
prediction of construction
