摘要
依据浙江省慈溪市2006-2009年塑料大棚小气候数据进行季节和天气状况分类,以棚外气象要素为自变量进行逐步回归模拟得到棚内气温二阶谐波模型所需参数,据此构建冬春季晴、昙、阴3种天气状况下塑料大棚内24h气温谐波预测模型并进行验证.结果表明：晴天和昙天的气温预测值与实测值间拟合直线方程的决定系数均在0.92以上,预测值与实测值间的均方根误差（RMSE）在3.0℃以内,绝对误差在2.4℃以内;阴天气温预测值与实测值间拟合直线方程的决定系数均在0.79左右,RMSE在3.0℃以内,绝对误差在2.0℃左右.从均方根误差和绝对误差来看,昙天预测模型精度最高,阴天次之,晴天最低;相同天气状况下冬季预测模型精度均略低于春季,两季相差在0.1 ～0.4℃.棚内预测气温相位均略提前于棚外,晴、昙天比阴天明显,冬季比春季明显;棚内日最低气温始终低于棚外,以晴天尤其明显,昙天次之,阴天基本持平;相同天气状况下春季均明显低于冬季.本研究论证了谐波分析方法在特定条件的塑料大棚气温日变化模拟方面的可行性,可为大棚小规模种植管理工作提供参考.
Micro- climate data inside plastic greenhouse in Cixi, Zhejiang province, during the period from 2006 to 2009 was analyzed based on three kinds of weather conditions in winter and spring seasons. Taking the weather elements outside plastic greenhouse as independent variables, the second -order harmonic model parameters were got by through the stepwise regression and a harmonic prediction model for hourly air temperature inside greenhouse was established and validated with three kinds of weather, i. e. , sunny day, partly cloudy day and overcast day in winter and spring respectively. The results showed that the coefficient of determination （ RE ） between the predicted and the measured value was more than 0. 92 both in sunny day and partly cloudy day, and root mean square error （RMSE） and absolute error （AE） were less than 3.0℃ and 2. 4℃ respectively. RE between the predicted air temperature and the measured value in overcast day was approximately 0. 79, and RMSE was less than 3.0℃ and RE was approximately 2. 0℃, which was lower than that of in partly cloudy day but higher than that of in sunny day. Under the same weather condition, predicted air temperature in winter was higher than that of in spring. Air temperature phase inside plastic greenhouse was a little ahead of outside, especially in sunny and partly cloudy day, and it was higher in winter than that of in spring. Daily minimum air temperature inside plastic greenhouse was lower than that of outside greenhouse, especially in spring. Application of the harmonic analysis to predict of air temperature inside plastic greenhouses under specific weather conditions was studied, and the research results could certainly provide scientific guidance for micro - scale cultivation management in plastic greenhouse.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期33-41,共9页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY20090623
GYHY201106043)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)项目
关键词
谐波分析
棚内气温
晴天
昙天
阴天
Harmonic analysis
Air temperature inside plastic greenhouse
Sunny day
Partly cloudy day
Overcast day
