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地气要素结合的廊坊地区暴雨落区预报方法 被引量:5

Forecast Method of Earth-Atmosphere Elements Binding of Heavy Rainstorm Location in Langfang Region
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摘要 从地气耦合的观点出发,利用1980-2009年冀中廊坊地区暴雨资料、MICAPS资料、地面0 cm、地下10 cm和20 cm地温资料,以及气温、水汽压和气压等地面气象要素资料,详细分析了廊坊地区暴雨天气过程的地气要素分布、变化特征、配置关系以及暴雨落点预报等问题。结果表明:(1)廊坊地区暴雨主要出现在4-10月,单点暴雨、局部暴雨是该地区暴雨最突出的特征之一;(2)每一次暴雨过程都是一个非常复杂的地气耦合相互作用过程,大范围强暴雨通常还有在热带海洋上生成,携带大量水汽登陆北上的热带气旋等含有水圈贡献的参与影响;(3)地面0 cm、地下10 cm和20 cm日平均温度分别在25,24和23℃以上的时段与暴雨的发生时段有较好的一致性;(4)地气要素的分布、变化与配置对暴雨预报有较好的参考价值,而地气要素高点对暴雨落点有重要的预报指示意义;(5)在识别暴雨天气影响系统的基础上,从地气耦合的观点出发,充分考虑地气要素的分布与配置特征,叠加互补各地气要素高点对暴雨落点预报是一个有效的途径。 Based on the viewpoint of earth-atmosphere coupling, using the data of heavy rainstorm, MICAPS, surface temperature. 10 cm and 20 cm soil temperatures ,air temperature, water vapor pressure, pressure in Lang- fang region from 1980 to 2009, the distributions and changing characteristics and configuration relationship of earth-atmosphere elements and location forecast of heavy rainstorm weather processes in Langfang region were analyzed in detail. The results are as follows: (1) The heavy rainstorm mainly occurs from April to October, single-point heavy rainstorm and partial heavy rainstorm is one of the outstanding characteristics of heavy rain- storm in Langfang region; (2) Each of the rainstorm processes is a very complicated process of earth-atmosphere coupling and interaction, the heavy rainstorm through Langfang region also has the effect of landing northbound tropical cyclones which carries a large amount of water vapour and occurs on the tropical sea and includes the contribution of hydrosphere ; (3) The period time of heavy rainstorm is to take place in the same period of 25, 24 and 23~C of the surface temperature, 10 cm and 20 cm soil temperatures in Langfang region; (4) The distri- bution and changing and configuration characteristics of earth-atmosphere elements have important reference value for heavy rainstorm location forcast, the high spots of earth-atmosphere elements have important forecast signifi- cance for heavy rainstorm location in Langfang region; ( 5 ) On the basis of identification of rainstorm weather system, from the viewpoint of earth-atmosphere coupling, considering the distribution and configuration charac- teristics of earth-atmosphere elements fully, superposing and complementing the earth-atmosphere elements is the effective way for heavy rainstorm location forecast.
出处 《高原气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2014年第1期270-276,共7页 Plateau Meteorology
基金 河北省气象局科研开发项目(10KY25)
关键词 暴雨 地气耦合 暴雨落点 地气要素结合 Heavy rainstorm Earth-atmosphere coupling Heavy rainstorm location Earth-atmosphere element binding
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