摘要
随着后危机时代金融安全问题的逐级渗透,县域经济的抗风险能力和在风险控制的前提下实现可持续发展的问题也越来越受到重视。本文在系统总结现有县域风险问题理论研究的基础之上,运用宏观资产负债表方法编制湖北省通山县四大经济部门的宏观资产负债表和县域宏观资产负债表矩阵,并提取重要风险指标进行分析和评估,得到通山县整体经济金融运行是稳健的,但部门中也存在欠发达县域长期投资占款引发的期限错配风险、企业培育期的经营风险、家户部门金融资产结构失衡风险、公共部门财政薄弱的债务补给能力和跨部门的风险传导等问题值得重点关注,并从县域金融市场机制、企业融资渠道、财政自立、居民投资结构与县域综合考核体系等方面提出政策建议。
In the post-crisis era, as the problem of financial security has penetrated cross the economic regions at all levels, the county economy＇s anti-risk capability and the tradeoff between risk control and sustainable development are receiving more and more attention. Until the end of 2012, there are more than 2850 county-level adminis-trative units in our country ; the steady development of the county region will undoubtedly have an important role to the whole macro economy. Traditional analysis ascribes the problems of less developed areas to the ＇ development＇ factors, such as the historical foundation, location, technology, human factors and so on, but to ignore the ＇ stable＇ factors or risk-relevant factors, such as government debt, credit construction, adverse selection and moral hazard as well as transaction cost, which are all caused by risk problems and have become a constraint to the growth of county economy. So it＇s necessary to give objective and accurate assessment on the county＇s financial risk conditions and test its anti-risk capability against macro negative impact. Based on the systematic and comprehensive summary of the existing theories on the county risk research, we find that the theoretical studies of county financial risk have not yet formed mature theoretical system and give limit- ed general empirical analysis. So this paper first gives a detailed introduction to the macro-balance-sheet method and its application extended to the county region. The county＇s macroeconomic balance sheet is based on the theory of macro financial engineering, industrial financial engineering and Regional financial engineering. By forming the macro balance sheets and making correlation analysis of the four major economic sectors in the county, we can eval- uate the risk conditions in the county region from both historical information and market valuation. Then we take the Tongshan County of Hubei Province as the representative object for empirical analysis. After years＇ field research and data
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期100-110,共11页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大攻关项目"欧美国家债务危机对我国的影响及对策研究"(12JZD029)
