摘要
城市的快速扩展进程中,其发展目标往往是变化的,存在多目标发展的可能.一方面,非确定性已经成为当今城市发展的一个重要特征;另一方面,城市发展中的"蝴蝶效应"日益突出.而传统城市规划缺乏灵活性,难以对城市的未来情景做出及时响应,进而突显规划目标与实际发展相背离.本文以南京市为研究区域,提出一种基于空间发展战略的用地布局模拟方法,以情景主题为切入点,将确定与不确定因素融入到用地布局过程中,进而模拟不同情景下的用地布局结果,最后依据总体规划目标对模拟结果进行了评价.结果表明:该方法可以快速反映不同空间发展格局下的用地布局情景,为城市未来的用地布局和用地政策提供辅助决策支持.
During the process of rapid urban expansion, there exists the possibility of muhi-objective development, since the object usually changes and the characteristics of main factor that infect urban development is diversity and variability, on the other side, the" butterfly effect" become increasing seriously. However, traditional urban plan lacks flexibility ,as a result, it's difficult to respond to futrue scenario timely and compose it ,which make the fac, t that planning objective is depart from reality prominent. Therefore, this paper raises a land allocation simulation approach based on spatial development strategy, takes Nanjing as study area, starts with scenario theme, combines certain and uncertain factors with land allocation model and simulate the future allocation results. Finally, the paper compares the simulation results with the overall planning objectives and evaluates them. The result indicates that the approach in this paper can seek clues from current situation, reflect the land allocation scenes rapidly under spatial development pattern, and the forecast of city's future,which provides sustain for the government and urban palnners.
出处
《南京师大学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期149-154,共6页
Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(40771164)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20103207110011)
江苏省高校自然科学研究项目(12KJA20001)
关键词
情景模拟
用地布局
城市空间拓展战略
南京市
scenario simulation, land allocation, spatial development strategy, Nanjing