摘要
准确合理地确定初值是利用Holt指数平滑模型进行准确预测的关键之一。本文以实例研究为基础,通过设定不同初值确定方案,探讨了初值对预测精度的影响。研究表明:模型初值会对模型预测精度产生一定的影响。预测的时段距离初值越近影响则越大。S0对预测精度的影响比T0对模型预测精度的影响大,实际应用时,应尽量避免选用已有时间序列前三个数据的平均值作为S0的初值。
An accurate and rational initial value of Hoh exponential smoothing model is one of the key issues to obtain an accurate prediction. Based on a case study, the influence of initial value on prediction accuracy is discussed by setting different initial values. The study shows that the prediction accuracy will be influenced by the initial value. The nearer the forecasted period from the initial value is, the greater the impacts are. The influence of S0 on the prediction accuracy is greater than that of T0. In practical application, the mean of the first three data should not he used as the initial value of S0.
出处
《工程勘察》
2014年第1期47-50,共4页
Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying
基金
长安大学博士生助研科技项目(CHD2011ZY022
CHD2011ZY025)
国家自然科学基金(41172212)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(CHD2011TD003)
水利部公益性行业专项基金(201306084)
陕西省科技统筹创新工程项目(2012KTDZD03-05)
关键词
指数平滑模型
水质预测
模型初值
地下水资源
exponential smoothing model
water quality prediction
model initial value
groundwaterresources.
