摘要
通过构建一个包含资本流动扰动的开放经济模型,本文考察了在通胀率与实际汇率双重目标下运用利率与对冲干预工具的"双目标双工具"货币政策框架,并与传统通胀目标制的实施效果进行了对比分析。运用我国数据校准参数并进行模拟分析后,结果显示,存在资本流动扰动时,"双目标双工具"政策框架显著优于通胀目标制;存在需求和供给扰动时,如资本流动有一定摩擦,"双目标双工具"政策框架同样优于通胀目标制。通过对近期利率政策和对冲干预反应函数的估计发现,我国货币政策实践与"双目标双工具"最优政策的部分特征相一致:对冲干预对通胀、产出缺口与外汇储备偏离程度、存款利率对外国利率分别均做出了显著反应。
In an open economic model with capital-flow disturbances, we study the ＂ two targets two instruments＂（TT） monetary policy framework, which has inflation and exchange rate as final targets and interest rate and sterilization intervention as instruments, focusing on the comparison of the TT framework and the inflation-targeting （IT） framework. Extended to a quantitative framework, the model is simulated to reveal： the TT framework performs better than the IT framework when capital-flow disturbances arrive; the TT framework prevails when demand disturbances or supply disturbances arrive with frictions in capital flows. Estimations of reaction functions of monetary policy instruments conclude： the practices of China＇s monetary policy are consistent with some of features of the TT framework, such as, the significant reactions of sterilization intervention towards inflation, output gap and foreign exchange reserve deviation, and the reactions of deposit rate towards foreign interest rate.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期127-139,共13页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"国际资本流动
货币国际化与货币政策:基于中国的理论与经验研究"(71373011)
国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国中长期经济增长与结构变动趋势研究"(09AZD013)
教育部人文社会科学一般项目"全球化背景下人民币汇率政策与货币政策协调的微观基础理论与实证研究"(10YJA790094)
北京市哲学社会科学规划办公室课题(11JGB019)
北京大学经济学院中青年教师科研种子基金的资助
关键词
实际汇率
对冲干预
货币政策
资本流动
Real Exchange Rate
Sterilization Intervention
Monetary Policy
Capital Flows
