摘要
新科技发展迅猛,科技作为第一生产力的地位已越来越突出。国家竞争抑或企业竞争,根本上也是科技的竞争和创新力的竞争。对技术发展做出战略性预见和规划对于政府和企业来说都已成为经常性的工作,极需一种常规化和体制化的方法和工作流程。预测市场作为近年来新兴的预测工具,已被众多领域的应用实例证明了其预测的准确性。本文创造性地尝试将预测市场应用于技术预见中。文章分析了现有技术预见方法的优缺点,归纳总结出技术预见的一般流程,结合预测市场机理和对应用实例的总结,论证了预测市场可以成为一种常规化和体制化的技术预见工具,并尝试建立预测市场用于技术预见的工作流程。
The rapid development of new technology made that science and technology as the primary productive role has become increasingly prominent. Either national competition or company competition is a technology competition and innovation competition. To make a strategic plan for predictable development of technology has become a regular work, and it is necessary to build a routine and institutionalized method and workflow. Prediction markets, emerging as a predictive tool in recent years, being widely used in many areas, has been demonstrated the accuracy of their forecasts. This paper tried to study the using of prediction markets in the technology foresight. This paper summarized the advantages and disadvantages of the prior methods of technology foresight, analyzed the foresight mechanism of prediction markets, pointed out that prediction markets could become a routine and institutionalized technology foresight tools, and tried to establish a workflow for prediction markets to do technology foresight.
出处
《图书馆杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期8-19,共12页
Library Journal
基金
"上汽教育基金会课题(2013XQHZ-03)
预测市场应用于技术预见的理论
运行机制和实证研究
2013"的研究成果之一
关键词
技术预见
预测市场
预测方法
Technology foresight, Prediction markets, Prediction methods
