摘要
选用宁波市具有代表性的两个景点——天一阁博物馆和溪口旅游景区2010年1月至2012年8月的客流量资料,统计分析了景点客流量的变化特征以及与当地气温、气压、降水、舒适度指数等气象要素的相关性。结果表明:客流量有明显的7天周期变化,周末客流较多,节假日是客流高峰;天气和气候对客流量影响较大,舒适宜人的春秋季是客流旺季,寒冬酷暑的冬夏季游客减少。采用逐步回归方法建立客流量预报模型,两景点的实际客流量与模型预报客流量的相关系数分别达到0.74和0.81,说明模型预报能力较好,对气象服务于旅游的实践有重要意义。
Based on the data of tourist passenger flow between January 2011 to August 2012 in Tianyige museun and Xikou tourist center which are the most representative scenic spots of Ningbo, we studied the variation characteristics and relationship between passenger flow and meteorological elements such as air temperature, air pressure, precipitation, comfort index and so on. The results show that tourist passenger flow has seven days period, and tourist flow reaches a peak at weekends and holidays.Weather and climate greatly influence tourist passenger flow. Tourist passenger flow has a busy season in spring and autumn when weather is comfortable and pleasant, while it is a dull season in severe winter and intense hot summer. Forecasting equations of tourist passenger flow are established by stepwise regression analysis. The correlation coefficients between the actual passenger flow and the forecasted passenger flow of Tianyige and Xikou are 0. 75 and 0. 79, which indicate that the model has good forecast ability and can be used for meteorological services in tourism practice.
出处
《旅游论坛》
2013年第5期83-87,共5页
Tourism Forum
关键词
旅游景点
客流量
气象要素
预测模型
tourist spots
passenger flow
weather elements
forecasting model
