摘要
为了寻找适合闽江流域径流趋势的分析方法,并在此基础上探究其径流特征,基于闽江流域4个控制水文站近61 a(1950—2010年)的月径流资料,采用TFPW-MK法分析不同时间尺度下径流演变趋势,并与MK、PW-MK结果进行比较分析。结果表明:1)由于序列普遍存在自相关,TFPW-MK法比较适合闽江流域径流趋势检测,且序列自相关系数是影响检测结果的关键因素。2)闽江流域近61 a径流演变主要趋势为年径流呈不显著下降趋势,汛期和春季径流以下降趋势为主,非汛期、夏秋冬季径流均呈上升趋势,其中冬季趋势显著,月最大和月最小径流分别呈下降和上升趋势,且多数站点趋势显著,同时序列长度对趋势分析结果有重要影响。
In order to find the suitable method in analyzing the runoff trend of Minjiang River Basin, TFPW-MK method was used to detect the trend of runoff in Minjiang River Basin based on the monthly runoff data of four main hydrological stations from 1950 to 2010, and the results were also compared with that investigated by the method of MK and PW-MK. The results showed that ： First, TFPW-MK method was the most suitable method for runoff trend detection in Minjiang River Basin due to the autocorre｜ation existing in the runoff sequence, and the autocorrelation coefficient r was the key factor to the results. Second,the annual runoff trend in Minjiang River Basin was on the decrease, and this trend was not significant. The runoff in the flood season was on the decrease, while in the non-flood season it was on the increase. As for the seasonal runoff, the runoff was almost on the increase except in the spring, and the increase of winter runoff was especially significant. Moreover, the maximum monthly runoff was in a downward trend, while the minimum monthly runoff was in an upward trend. And the trends for the most hydrological stations were similar. Additionally, the length of time series had an important effect on the results.
出处
《中国水土保持科学》
CSCD
2013年第5期96-102,共7页
Science of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金"河床下渗对明渠水流运动特性影响研究"(50979015)
福建省科技计划重大项目"基于集水区动态模拟的水库水资源水环境管理平台开发"(2010Y4001)
2012年福建省公益所项目"基于分布式水文模拟的土地利用变化对洪水风险影响的不确定性研究"(N00298)
福建师范大学优秀青年骨干教师培养项目(fjsdjk2012072)
