摘要
以核电厂主管道为研究对象,运用性能退化可靠性理论和贝叶斯更新方法,对主管道因热老化导致失效的剩余寿命进行研究。首先通过加速热老化实验获得的数据,分析主管道奥氏体不锈钢材料的冲击性能退化过程,然后运用贝叶斯更新方法得到基于冲击性能衰退信息的主管道热老化剩余寿命分布,进行可靠性剩余寿命预测;最后通过实例证明该方法的有效性和可操作性。
The paper makes the study of the nuclear power plant main pipeline.The residual-life of the main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and Bayesian updating methods.Firstly,the thermal aging impact property degradation process of the main pipeline austenitic stainless steel has been analyzed by the accelerated thermal aging test data.Then,the thermal aging residual-life prediction model based on the impact property degradation data is built by Bayesian updating methods.Finally,these models are applied in practical situations.It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project.Also,it provides a foundation for the scientific management of aging management of the main pipeline.
出处
《核动力工程》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期96-99,共4页
Nuclear Power Engineering
基金
国家863计划项目(2008AA031701-3)
关键词
核电厂
主管道
核电厂热老化
冲击性能
剩余寿命
贝叶斯更新
Nuclear power plant
Main pipeline
Thermal aging
Impact property
Residual-life
Bayesian updating
