摘要
从县域土地利用总体规划修编出发,分析民乐县土地利用现状,并采用灰色预测法、趋势预测法和综合增长法预测规划目标年的土地利用类型的面积。结合环境影响评价的技术导则,对土地利用规划环境影响识别和DPSIR模型指标体系的建立进行探讨,选用改进熵值法对民乐县土地利用规划环境影响进行评价。研究表明:2004年环境影响综合评价值为0.3382,到2008年和2009年增加达到0.3498和0.3506;至规划目标年2010年、2015年和2020年达到0.3549、0.3684和0.3819,比2008年提高了0.0051、0.0186和0.0321,增长率依次为:1.46%、5.32%和9.18%,其增长是逐年大幅度提高。显示评价指标能较好地预估土地利用规划方案的实施对环境、生态和土地资源的潜在影响,为规避土地利用调整可能出现的不良生态环境影响,提供有益的决策支持和参考。
The status quo of land use of Minle County was analyzed.Using Grey prediction,trend extrapolation,average growth rate,the various plannings of land use types in Minle were predicted.Combined with the technical guideline for environmental impact assessment,the land use planning environmental impact recognition and the index system of DPSIR model were discussed.The land use planning environmental impact assessment system was established through improved entropy.The studies showed that the environmental impact comprehensive evaluation values were increased year by year.It concluded that the indicators could well reveal the potential effects of the implementation of land use planning on the environment,ecosystems and land resources,and thus the assessment is useful and valuable in supporting the land use planners or policy makers to sufficiently consider the environment issues in the formulation and implementation of land use planning.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第11期135-141,共7页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271184)资助
关键词
土地利用规划环境影响评价
环境影响识别
改进熵值法
DPSIR模型
民乐县
environmental impact assessment
land use planning
initial environmental examination
improved entropy
DPSIR model
Minle County
