摘要
关中天水经济区地方政府投资对产业结构的优化作用十分明显。笔者以关中-天水经济开发区为例,运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解计量等分析工具,对我国2000-2011年关中天水经济区的地方政府投资与产业结构的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:地方政府总投资对三次产业生产总值均具有正效应,地方政府总投资与产业结构的优化之间具有长期稳定的关系,其中地方政府总投资对第二产业生产总值影响最大,其次是第三产业对第一产业影响最小。
Using the analytical tools of unit root test, cointegration analysis and VECM, the author makes an empirical study of the re- lationship between local government investment and industry structure in Guanzhong Tianshui economic region from 2000 to 2011 on the basis of the four variables of local government investment and the production value structures in the three in- dustries. The result demonstrates that the local government investment has a positive impact on the output value of the three industries, and the local government investment and the industry structure optimization have a long - term positive equilibrium relationship, in which, the promotion effect of the secondary industry and tertiary industry is more obvious, and the stimu- lation of the primary industry is weak.
出处
《企业经济》
北大核心
2013年第10期171-174,共4页
Enterprise Economy
关键词
地方政府投资
产业结构
协整分析
误差修正模型
local government investment
industrial structure
cointegration analysis
VECM
