摘要
通过构建向量自回归模型,对我国FDI波动、出口波动及产出波动的互动关系进行了研究。研究结果显示:外商直接投资波动、出口波动及产出波动之间存在长期的均衡关系。长期内,对于出口波动而言,产出波动和FDI波动对其均具有正向的促进作用,但产出波动的影响效应要高于FDI波动的影响效应。格兰杰因果检验的结果显示,FDI波动是出口波动的单向格兰杰原因,产出波动和出口波动之间存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,产出波动与FDI波动之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。脉冲响应函数的结果显示,出口波动对来自其自身冲击的响应在三种冲击中最为强烈;FDI波动对来自其自身的冲击以及来自产出波动冲击的响应比来自出口波动冲击的响应更为强烈;产出波动对来自出口波动冲击的响应最强烈。
It is studied that the interactive relationship among foreign direct investment （FDI） fluctuation, export fluctuation and output fluctuations by constructing vector autoregression model （VAR） in the paper. Re- search results show that there is a long -term eqhilibrium relationship among FDI fluctuations, export fluctuations and output fluctuations. In a long term, as for export fluctuations, output fluctuations and FDI fluctuations have a positive effect in promoting export fluctuations, but the effect of output fluctuations are higher than that of FDI fluctuations. The results of Granger causality test indicate that FDI fluctuations are the one - way granger reason of export fluctuations. There is a two - way granger causality between output fluctuations and export fluctuations. There is no granger causality between output fluctuations and FDI fluctuations. The results of impulse response function indicate that the response from export fluctuations on its own impact is the most intense among three kinds of impacts. The response from the impact from FDI fluctuations and output fluctuations is more intense than the impact from export fluctuations. The response from output fluctuations on export fluctuation is the most intense.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第10期75-79,共5页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
2013年度河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目"中国地区间对外直接投资差异的收敛性
形成机制及空间效应研究"(2013-GH-249)
国家自然科学基金项目"基于空间外溢效应的中国区域经济增长空间俱乐部趋同研究"(41001073)
国家社科基金项目"资本存量
财产性收入与居民消费的路径演化研究"(08BJL015)之研究成果
关键词
外商直接投资波动
出口波动
产出波动
向量自回归模型
Foreign direct investment （FDI） fluctuations Export fluctuations Output fluctuations Vec-tor autoregression model （VAR）
