摘要
石油作为重要的战略能源与基础性产品,对国民经济的发展将起到至关重要的作用,尤其在经济危机之后国际局势动荡,使我国的石油市场受到严重影响。从产量、进出口和国际局势的影响等3方面对我国石油供给发展状况进行介绍,并结合石油需求发展状况和石油安全对我国石油供需发展历程进行科学分析。在此基础上,选取2000～2012年这13年的石油产量和消费量为原始数据,运用灰色预测法和线性回归分析法分别对我国2013～2020年的石油产量和消费量进行预测。结果表明,我国石油消费量的增长速度明显高于产量的增长速度,与持续膨胀的石油需求相比,我国石油的自给能力几乎已经达到了极限,供不应求的状态将日益严重。提出了有针对性的建议:重视和增加石油储备资金投入,加大勘探力度和技术水平,全方位保证我国石油供应安全;走能源多元化道路,建立节约型消费模式,抑制石油消费地过快增长;开发下游市场,贯彻"走出去"战略,有效弥补国内石油供需缺口。
Petroleum,as a strategic energy source and basic product,is crucial to a country＇s economy.The turbulent world politics after the breakout of the financial crisis has dramatically impacted China＇s oil market. This article describes China＇s oil supply by analyzing the country＇s production,imports and exports and the impact of international political situation on the country ,and examines the country＇s history of oil demand and supply from the perspectives of oil demand development and oil security.Based on data on China＇s oil production and consumption during 2000 to 2012,the article forecasts the country＇s oil production and con- sumption between 2013 and 2020 using the grey prediction method and the linear regression analysis method. The analytic results show that China＇s oil consumption has considerably outpaced the country＇s oil production. Compared with the continuously expanding oil demand,China＇s ability to meet its oil demand with domestic production has almost reached its limit and the supply will increasingly fall short of demand.Regarding this issue,the article proposes a series of suggestions ~ including placing high value on and increasing investment in oil reserves and strengthening exploration and technological development to ensure oil supply security;di- versifying energy supplies ,developing an energy-effective society and arresting the fast growth of oil consump- tion;developing downstream markets and implementing ＂go out＂ strategy to make up the gap in domestic oil supply.
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2013年第10期7-12,共6页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
石油需求
石油供给
灰色预测
线性回归
发展对策
oil demand
oil supply
grey prediction
linear regression
development strategy
