摘要
始于2007年底的全球性金融危机,不仅使传统货币理论和政策的一些基本命题丧失了解释力,而且货币政策目标、调控工具、传导机制的宏观化及其有效性也受到挑战和质疑,如何通过中国化、微观化提高货币政策调控有效性问题提到了研究和实践的议事日程上。本文从金融加速器存在性的理论前提入手,以全球金融危机以来中国A股上市公司13个行业2577家企业的货币资金和投资现金流净值面板数据为基础,分析中国货币政策传导的企业资产负债表渠道是否有效的问题。运用面板向量自回归模型方法,对货币资金、投资现金流科目和货币政策虚拟变量之间的因果关系进行了检验,并用面板VAR方差分解得出13个行业的资产负债表渠道传导基本有效,同时又存在整体非对称性和部分行业低效应的研究结论,据以为提高货币政策传导的有效性提供新的科学决策依据。
The global financial crisis, burst from the end of 2007, made various fundamental propositions of tra- ditional monetary theory lose the explanatory power. And the applicability of the target, macro - control tools and the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy has been weakened; hence it is an urgent issue to study how to improve the efficiency of monetary policy through sinicization and microscopicization. This paper starts with the premise of financial accelerator theory, based on China＇s A - share listed companies＇ panel data of the currency funds and the net value of cash flows from investment of 2577 companies from 13 industries since the financial crisis to study the issue whether China＇s monetary policy＇s corporate balance sheet transmission channel works or not. This paper uses a panel vector auto - regression model and panel Granger causality test to test the causal relationship between the cash flow from investment and cash items and the monetary policy dummy varia- ble. The result of panel VAR variance decomposition helps lead to a conclusion that the 13 industry balance sheet transmission channels of monetary policy has been essentially smooth, and the existence of population a- symmetry and partial industry low effect. The conclusion of the study provides a scientific basis for decision - making to improve the validity of the monetary policy.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第10期15-27,共13页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金(12BJY154)
国家自然科学基金(71273282)
中南财经政法大学百篇优秀博士学位论文培育项目和研究生创新教育计划(2013YB0401)资助
