摘要
基于耕地数量保护视角,构建虚拟变量模型,采用"自回归法",以珠三角为例,评价了1992—2008年中国巨型城市区域耕地保护政策的效果。结果显示:耕地政策变量通不过t检验;二、三产业增加值占GDP比重和农产品生产价格指数均与非农建设占用耕地数量呈负相关,且分别通过5%和10%的t检验。与全国平均水平相比,耕地保护制度对珠三角地区建设占用耕地数量的遏制作用不显著,遏制效果明显低于全国平均水平,但非农经济发展对土地投入的依赖程度在下降,农产品价格的上升仍有利于提高农民个体的耕地保护积极性。认为巨型城市区域耕地保护应转向生态安全、粮食安全、经济安全与社会安全的综合视角。
From the perspective of quantity protection, this paper, taking the Pearl River Delta as the case study area, evaluates the performance of cultivated land protection policies in China＇s mega-city regions from 1992 to 2008, by constructing dummy variable model and applying method of autoregression analysis. The results indicate that the variables of the polices are not statistically significant even at the 15% level% while variables of proportion of secondary and tertiary industry added value to GDP and agricultural product price index are significant at the of 5%, 10% respectively, and all have a negative relationship with dependent variable. It is concluded that compared with the average national conditions, effect of reducing farmland conversion is not significant in the Pearl River Delta, but dependence on land input of non-agricultural economy is declining, and that the rising of farm product price also makes for the stimulation of the self-employed farmers enthusiasm for protecting cultivated land. The paper holds that cultivated land protection in mega-city regions should be turned to a comprehensive perspective of ecological, food, economic and social security, rather than single food security view.
出处
《国土资源科技管理》
北大核心
2013年第5期96-102,共7页
Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJCZH034)
广东省优秀青年创新人才培养计划项目(2012WYM-0036)
关键词
耕地保护政策
数量保护
效果评价
巨型城市区域
珠三角
policy ofcultivated land protection quantity protection
performance evaluationl mega-city region the Pearl RiverDelta
