摘要
针对以水库为主要防洪工程且受干支流洪水遭遇影响的典型下游防洪区,基于Copula函数具有将多个边缘分布函数连接为多元联合分布函数的功能特点,选取在水文分析中应用比较广泛的一种Copula函数,以水库出流和区间入流洪峰流量为随机变量,结合洪水频率组合法寻求下游防洪控制断面总汇流的分布函数,构建了水库下游防洪区多维风险估计模型,为合理评估干支流洪水遭遇情况下的水库下游防洪风险提供了一条可行途径。算例分析表明,该模型能够充分考虑干支流洪水遭遇可能性,估算得到水库下游防洪的风险率,为调度人员的管理和决策提供了一定的技术参考。
Aiming at the flood control area downstream which is affected by the flood from reservoirs and the encountered flood in local areas, some Copula functions widely used in hydrology are employed to join their marginal distribution functions so that a bivariate distribution function is constructed. Meanwhile, treating the peak flows of reservoir outflow and local inflow as random variables, the combination of flood probability method is applied to determine the distribution function of the total inflows in the flood control area downstream. Thus a multivariate risk assessment model is established, which can provide a practical method to estimate the risk rate of the encountering floods in flood control area downstream. The result of an example shows that this model can fully take the randomness of floods encountering into consideration, and the estimated risk rate of flood control is determined, which can provide a technical reference for related flood management department.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2013年第10期147-150,154,共5页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279062)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(10QX43)
关键词
洪水遭遇组合
下游防洪风险率
多维风险估计模型Copula
洪水频率组合法
encountering combination of floods
risk rate of flood control downstream
multivariate risk assessment model
Copula
combination of flood probability
