摘要
利用SPSS19.0软件对中国1990-2011年的进口、出口、净出口额和国内生产总值(GDP)做了一元线性回归,发现国内生产总值与进口、出口额即进出口总额之间的相关性较强;然后用计量经济学的方法,利用eviews6.0软件对GDP与进出口总额两时间序列做单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验及脉冲函数分析、方差分解分析,得到结论:进出口总额是GDP的Granger原因,而GDP不是进出口贸易的Granger原因;接着又利用SPSS19.0统计软件作图功能对我国2011及2010年的对外商品分类金额做了简单箱图和堆栈面积图,比较直观的分析了我国当前的产业结构.最后对发展我国进出口贸易和经济发展提出建议.
The purpose of this paper is to find out the relationship of China＇s imports,exports,net ex- ports and GDP between 1990 and 2011. The SPSS19.0 was used to fit all the data in a simple linear regres- sion model, from which it found strong correlation between the GDP and exports and imports. Besides that econometric methods were used, involving unite root test, co-integration test, granger causality test, im- pulse function analysis, variance decomposition analysis and so on. All the tests indicated that the aggregate amount of imports and exports is the Granger cause of the GDP,while GDP is not the Granger cause of im- ports and exports. Moreover, dealing with the amount of exports goods category, it drawn box plot and stack area chart to make the data more visualized,and it analyzed the industrial structure. Finally some rec- ommendations on China^s economics development and foreign trade were made.
出处
《曲阜师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2013年第4期7-12,共6页
Journal of Qufu Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
山东省软科学基金(2010RKGA1048)
