摘要
为研究白城地区地下水位动态特征及其原因,用时间序列法的加法和乘法模型对白城地区某口井的25 a逐月地下水位观测资料进行分析与预报。两种模型的综合运用避免了由于选择模型而产生的不准确性,选择拟合度高的模型进行预报可增强预报的可靠性。分析结果表明:研究区地下水位呈逐年下降趋势,受降雨影响明显,而且存在7 a的周期变化。对于趋势项变化明显的地区,用乘法模型分析预报更好。
The additive and multiplicative model of time series analysis method is used to study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and variation of groundwater levels in Baicheng city, and the groundwater in the study area is analyzed and predicted based on the data of 25 years of monthly groundwater table of two observation wells. Using both additive model and multiplicative model helps to decrease the error due to choosing models. The results show that the groundwater depth in study area has a wide- spread increasing trend, and the depth sequence is influenced by rainfall obviously and exists 6 to 9 years cycle. For the places with obvious trend, the multiplicative model is preferred.
出处
《节水灌溉》
北大核心
2013年第9期54-56,60,共4页
Water Saving Irrigation
基金
吉林省环保厅科技项目"石头口门水库芦苇湿地的作用过程与机理效用研究"(2011-12)
关键词
时间序列分析
地下水位动态
白城
预报
time series analysis
dynamic state of groundwater level
Baicheng
prediction
