摘要
针对干旱区尾闾绿洲土壤盐渍化严重发生的现状，运用遥感和GIS技术，基于天山北麓三工河流域平原尾闾绿洲农区0～20 cm耕作层土壤盐渍化特征，利用空间概率模型预测了其今后的发生状态。结果表明：经过长时间的土地利用，土壤盐渍化程度有所加剧；通过空间概率模型χ2检验，1982—2005年的转移概率模拟值与实际值可靠性要高于1982—1999年的转移概率。模型模拟结果显示，2010年以后到达稳定状态，人工景观的面积增加，自然景观的面积减少，其中轻盐化耕地面积减少，中盐化和重盐化耕地面积增加，在长时间范围内，土壤盐渍化依旧是制约研究区绿洲耕地生产力的主要因素。
Aiming at the serious soil salinization in arid oasis, GIS and RS techniques were adopted to study the salinization characteristics in topsoil （0-20 cm） in an oasis at the lower reaches of the Sangong River Basin in the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang of Northwest China, and a spatial probability model was used to predict the dynamic status of the soil salinization. After a long-term land use process, the soil salinization in the study area aggravated to some extent, and the area of soil salinization was enlarged. The χ2test of spatial probability model revealed that the simulated value of transition probability and the measured value were more reliable during the period of 1982-2005 than during the period of 1982-1999. The simulated results of spatial probability model showed that after 2010, the area of natural landscapes was reduced, but that of artificial ones was enlarged, in which, the area of slight soil salinization was decreased, but that of moderate and serious soil salinization showed an opposite pattern. It was considered that within a long period, soil salinization would be still a key factor limiting the cropland productivity in the study area.
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第10期2614-2619,共6页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB825102)
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-EW-QN-316)
国家自然科学基金项目(41271202)资助
关键词
绿洲
景观格局
土壤盐渍化
概率模型
干旱区
oasis
landscape pattern
soil salinization
probability model
arid area.
