摘要
在界定城市土地集约利用与城市化内涵的基础上,构建了城市土地集约利用与城市化的评价指标体系,采用改进的熵值法和功效函数法测度了江苏省1985～2008年城市土地集约利用水平与城市化水平,并运用协整检验、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济分析方法探讨城市土地集约利用与城市化的动态关系和相互作用。研究表明:(1)1985年以来,江苏省城市土地集约利用水平、城市化水平总体上逐步提高;(2)城市化与城市土地集约利用均为一阶单整序列;(3)城市土地集约利用与城市化之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,短期内城市化水平的提高不利于城市土地集约利用,但长期内其有利于城市土地集约利用,且长期的响应作用程度更显著、更稳定;(4)城市土地集约利用对来自城市化的冲击响应强烈,城市化的冲击对城市土地集约利用的解释水平达到了58.44%,而城市化对来自城市土地集约利用的冲击响应较弱,城市土地集约利用的冲击对城市化的解释水平较低。因此,应采取长期而非短期的策略,有序推进城市化进程,加强土地利用监督管理,提高土地资源集约利用水平,不断提升土地资源对经济社会发展的保障能力。
Exploring the interactions between urban land intensive utilization and urbanization has theoretical and practical significance for scientific formulation guidelines and policies for urban land utilization, accelerating land utilization manner change, and promoting social health and sustainable development. Based on defining the connotation of urban land intensive utilization and urbanization, the paper constructed evaluation index system for urban land intensive utilization and urbanization, then measured the level of urban land intensive utilization and urbanization in Jiangsu province from 1985 to 2008 by improved entropy method and efficacy function method. The interactions between urban land intensive utilization and urbanization were explored by econometrics analysis method, such as co-integration test,vector error correction model, impulse response function, variance decomposition and so on. The results showed that the level of urban land intensive utilization gradually increased in Jiangsu Province since 1985, while the level of urbanization gradually increased, especially after 1998, and the comprehensive index for urbanization increased rapidly, showing an accelerated growth trend. Both of urbanization and urban land intensive utilization were integrated of order one. There was equilibrium relationship between urban land intensive utilization and urbanization. The improvement of urbanization would worsen the urban land intensive utilization in the short run. However, the increase of urbanization was propitious to urban land intensive utilization in the long run, and the role of response was more prominent and stable. The response of urban land intensive utilization to urbanization impulse was remarkable, and the urbanization impulse could explain the change of urban land intensive utilization to a certain extent of 58. 44~; the response of urbanization to urban land intensive utilization was weak and the urban land intensive utilization impulse could explain the change of urbanization to lower level. Th
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第8期1019-1026,共8页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71173112)
江苏省国土资源科技项目(201003)
江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(CXZZ11_0690)
关键词
土地集约利用
城市化
协整检验
脉冲响应
方差分解
land intensive utiiizatiom urbanization
co-integration test~ impulse response~ variance decomposition
