摘要
人口分布是人口发展过程在地理空间中的表现形式,研究人口空间布局的时空演变过程,揭示其中的规律,确定影响因子,对引导人口合理布局,实现人口、资源、环境、社会的协调发展具有指导作用。以南京市为研究区域,1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年数据为依据,采用行政区划法、圈层方向法、空间插值法和热点分析法,从四大区域、区县、乡镇街道和网格等不同层次分析了南京近30a人口空间格局演变过程;总结出人口格局演变的六大特征;最后,从经济发展水平、自然地理条件、产业优化升级与布局调整、新城和开发区建设、交通便捷程度、公共服务水平和设施配套、工作选择、居住空间选择、城市空间发展政策与城市规划等方面阐释了南京人口格局演变的机理,并通过回归模型加以实证。
The population distribution is the manifestation of population change in geographic space. In order to insure rational distribution of population and coordinated development of population, resources, environment and society, it is important to identify the laws and determine the factors for population change by studying temporal and spatial evolution process of population distribution. Based on data from year of 1982,1990,2000 ,and 2010, this paper used the methods of administrative divisions, circle direction, space interpolation and hot spot analysis to analyze spatial pattern evolution process of population in Nanjing for the recent 30 years from different levels of areas, counties, towns and grids. Then, six characteristics of population pattern evolution were summarized up. （1） Population grew steadily, with rapid growth in the central city and slow growth in the suburban. （2）Population density decreased from the centre to the suburb, showing sphere variation feature. （3）The distribution of population was uneven, concentrating on central city, Metro and Development Zone. （4）The first degree of population enhanced, but the distribution pattern tended to be scattered. （5）The population distribution pointed to a centain direction,with the population size in the north being large and the fluctuation being significant. （6）The process of population urbanization accelerated, and suburhanization began to take shape. Finally, it illustrated the mechanism of population distribution evolution in Nanjing from the perspectives of ecomonic development,geographical barrier, industrial upgrading and distribution adjustment, construction of metro and development zones, transport accessibility, the level of public services and facilities, work and living opportunity,urban spatial development policies and urban planning. Then,the paper used regression model to prove its ideas. The conclution is that the rapid developing economy, industrial upgrading, improved public services, more jobs, focusing develop
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第8期979-988,共10页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-06-03)
关键词
南京
人口格局
演变
机制
Nanjing
population
evolution
mechanism
