摘要
在气候变化问题上,"灾难论"和"阴谋论"是由碳排放量增加与气温升高"因果论"和"非因果论"衍生的两种主要观点,但未见学者从统计因果关系检验角度深入探究。选取全球161年的时间序列数据,运用线性和非线性等方法检验两者之间的统计因果关系,结果表明碳排放增加是气温升高的原因,同时发现气温变化存在一个滞后期为29年的周期性变动;在面板数据因果检验中,从全球抽取20个代表性国家101年的数据,检验结果仍然是碳排放增加是气温变化的原因。因此,有证据表明,碳排放增加是全球气温变化的统计原因。节能减排是共同责任,"阴谋论"不足为信。
＂ Theory of catastrophe＂ and ＂theory of conspiracy＂ is derivative of the two main points of view by ＂correlation＂ and ＂irrele- vance＂ about carbon emissions with air temperature, but we did not find scholars to discuss the topic from statistical causality relationship up to now. We analysis the problem from two dimensions of time series and panel data, Selected the global 161 years time series data, using the linear and nonlinear, parametric and nonparametric method to test the relationship between the two, the result is that the increased carbon emissions is the causality of elevated temperature, and found that the rising of temperature existed the cycle change of a lag period of 29 years. In panel data causality test, from global from 20countries 101 years data, the test result is the same. On the issue of climate change, ＂theory of conspiracy＂ are not to be believed, according to bear ＂the common and distinguish liability＂.
出处
《贵州财经大学学报》
北大核心
2013年第5期46-51,共6页
Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics
