摘要
基于IPCC报告中对脆弱性的定义,从敏感性和环境适应性两个方面建立了沿海地区经济系统海洋灾害脆弱性评价模型。根据反正切函数构建敏感性和适应性的耦合度评价模型,以此表征脆弱度。以山东省台风灾害为例,发现2001—2011年,虽然敏感性和适应性都呈现正相关递增变化,但后者增长快于前者;脆弱度以2005年为界,先是递增趋势,然后是递减趋势,脆弱性的评价结果与实际相符。
Based on the definition of vulnerability put forward in the IPCC report, the paper establishes the marine disaster vulnerability evaluation model from the two aspects of sensitivity and environmental adaptability. According to the sensitivity and adaptability of the arc tangent function, it establishes the coupling evaluation model to characterize the fragility. Taking the typhoon disasters in Shandong Province for example, it is found that although the sensitivity and adaptability are positively related to the incremental change, but the latter was growing faster than the former in 2001-2011. The year of 2005 was a boundary, the trend of fragile degrees is increasing firstly and then decreasing. The fragility of the evaluation result accords with the actual one.
出处
《海洋经济》
2013年第3期21-25,共5页
Marine Economy
基金
国家海洋信息中心项目"区域海洋经济政策研究(20120840)"
关键词
敏感性
适应性
脆弱性
耦合度
Sensitivity
Adaptability
Vulnerability
Degree of Coupling
