摘要
在建立物流需求、国民经济、居民消费价格指数和工资总额的协整VAR模型基础上,运用协整分析、脉冲响应函数、变异分解和方差分解,分析了1978-2010年湖南国民经济增长对物流需求的影响,揭示了湖南物流需求和国民经济增长之间复杂而微妙的变化规律。研究结果表明:物流需求自身在短期内促进作用明显,物流需求对价格的变化反应敏感,GDP推动作用滞后期较长,但有显著的促进作用和较长的持续效应。
In this paper, on the basis of an established co-integrated VAR model of logistics demand, national economy, resident consumer price index and total salary volume, we used co-integrated analysis, impulse response function, mutation decompos＇~tion and variance decomposition to analyze the influence of the growth of the national economy of Hunan between 1978 and 2010 on the logistics demand of the province and unveiled the complicated and subtle pattern of change between the two. The result indicated that logistics demand had significant short-term promotive effect and was sensitive to changes in price; while the GDP had a rather long lagging period with its promotive effect but the effect was significant and sustained.
出处
《物流技术》
北大核心
2013年第8期185-187,190,共4页
Logistics Technology
基金
湖南省教育厅委托项目(12w011)
湖南省重点建设学科资助
