摘要
利用1951～2005年长江流域174个气象站的日雨量资料,通过气候趋势系数法、气候倾向率法分析了长江流域各区域多年降雨变化趋势,并进一步采用Mann-Kendall秩相关检验方法分析了趋势的显著性。结果表明,1951～2005年长江上游降水量呈显著减少趋势,其他区域的降水变化趋势不显著;长江上游汛期降雨呈显著减少趋势,其他区域则为不显著增加趋势;长江流域各区域枯季降雨量均呈不显著的减少趋势。
By precipitation data from 173 meteorological stations during 1951 to 2005 in Yangtze River Basin,the precipitation trend of several main areas in the basin are analyzed by climate trend coefficient method,climate tendency rate method,and the significance of the trends are further tested by rank correlation method of Mann-Kendall.The results indicate that,the precipitation in the area of upstream Yangtze River Basin shows a significant decrease trend,while the precipitation variation in other areas is not notable;in flood season,the precipitation in the area of upstream Yangtze River Basin decreases significantly while in other areas the precipitation shows a little upward trend in dry season.It is discovered that the precipitation of all the areas in Yangtze River Basin have a slight downward trend.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2013年第15期11-13,18,共4页
Yangtze River
基金
水利部公益性行业专项经费项目"长江流域山洪致灾临界雨强拟定及预警技术"(201201063)
关键词
气候变化
降水
气候趋势系数
长江流域
climate change
precipitation
climate trend coefficient
Yangtze River Basin
