摘要
目的探讨中国城市气温与人群死亡风险的关系，分析纬度对气温与死亡风险关系的修饰作用。方法收集国内有关气温与人群死亡风险关系的研究，采用Meta分析合并效应值，再通过Meta回归模型进一步分析纬度对该关系的影响。结果共纳入10篇文献，包括15个城市。气温每增加1℃，非意外死亡风险增加2％（95％CI：1％～3％），心血管疾病死亡风险增加4％（95％CI：2％～6％），呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加2％（95％C1：1％～4％）；气温每降低1℃，非意外死亡风险增加4％（95％C1：2％～7％），心血管疾病死亡风险增加4％（95％CI：1％～7％），呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加2％（95％CI：0％～4％）。纬度0°-25°、26°-30°、31°-39°、≥40。时气温每下降1℃，人群总死亡风险分别增加6．5％（95％CI：-2．7％～15．6％）、5．8％（95％CI：2．4％-9.3％）、0．8％（95％CI：0．4％～1．2％）、0．5％（95％C1：-0．5％-1．5％）；气温每上升1℃，人群总死亡风险分别增加0．6％（95％CI：-0.3％～1．4％）、1．9％（95％CI：0．7％～3．1％）、2．0％（95％CI：1．0％-3．0％）、5．8％（95％CI：-3．2％～14．8％）。纬度每增高5°，高温时人群死亡风险增加0．3％（95％CI：0．1％～0．8％），低温时人群死亡风险减少0．8％（95％CI：0．5％-0．9％）。结论气温过高或过低均增加人群的死亡风险。中低纬度地区人群对冷的适应能力要比高纬度地区更为脆弱，而对热的适应能力则较强。
Objective To understand the effect of temperature on the risk of mortality and the modification effect of latitude, in China. Methods Relevant papers were searched and Meta-analysis was used to determine the exposure-response relationship for each health outcome which was associated with the exposure to temperature. Meta-regression analysis was used to evaluate the effect modification by latitude. Results Ten studies in 15 cities were included in the study. When temperature increased by one centigrade, the risks of mortality showed the following changes, deaths from non-accidental increased by 2%（95%CI： 1%,3%）, from cardiovascular disease increased by 4% （ 95%CI： 2%, 6% ） and from the respiratory disease increased by 2% （95%CI： 1%, 4% ）. As temperature decreased by one centigrade, the mortality risks of the following diseases showed the changes as： non-accidental death increased by 4% （95%CI： 2%, 7% ）, cardiovascular disease increased by 4% （95%CI. 1%, 7% ） and the respiratory diseases increased by 2% （95%C1： 0%, 4% ）. When latitude ranged from 0 to 25,26 to 30, 31 to 39 degree or over 40 degrees, respectively and the temperature decreased by one centigrade, the mortality risks of the general population increased by 6.5% （95%CI：-2.7%, 15.6%）, 5.8%（95% CI：2.4%,9.3%）, 0.8%（95%CI：0.4%, 1.2%）, 0.5%（95%CI： -0.5%, 1.5% ）. As temperature increased by one centigrade, mortality risk of the general population increased by 0.6% （95% CI： -0.3%, 1.4% ）, 1.9% （95%CI： 0.7%, 3.1% ）, 2.0% （95% CI： 1.0%, 3.0% ）and 5.8% （95%CI：-3.2%, 14.8% ）. As latitude increased by five degrees with high temperature, the mortality risk of general people increased by 0.3% （95% CI： 0.1%, 0.8% ） while decreased by 0.8% （95% CI： 0.5%, 0.9% ） under low temperature. Conclusion In China, the mortality risk increased along with the changes of temperature. The adaptability to cold hess among people living in high latitude areas seemed to be stronger than those
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第9期922-926,共5页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
关键词
气温
死亡风险
纬度
META分析
Temperature
Mortality risk
Latitude
Meta-analysis
