摘要
利用四川省松潘县西部牟尼沟二道海采集的树木年轮样本,建立了该地区173年树木年轮年表序列,并依据响应函数、相关与偏相关方法,分析了该年表与气象要素之间的关系,发现该年表对5月降水较敏感,并由此重建了1837-2009年松潘高原地区5月降水序列。结果表明,1837年以来松潘高原地区先后经历了5个偏湿阶段和3个偏干阶段;以重建的1971-2000年30年气候平均值为基准,在重建的16个气候时段中1961-1990年是降水最少的气候时段,而1837-1860年则是降水最多的气候时段;降水发生了多次正负突变,比较可靠的突变点出现在1863年前后、1874年前后、1890年前后、1904年前后、1958年前后和1994年前后;重建序列周期变化明显,存在2～4年、16年和32～50年为主的周期振荡。
The tree-ring standardized chronology series（TRSC） in 173 years was established based on the tree-ring width data of Songpan Plateau.The correlations between the TRSC and meteorological elements were analyzed using the response function,linear correlation and partial correlation methods.The result shows that the TRSC responses to precipitation sensitively in May.And the precipitation in May in Songpan Plateau was reconstructed.Furthermore,the change characteristics of precipitation were analyzed.The results show that there are 5 wet periods and 3 dry periods of the precipitation in May in Songpan Plateau in the past 173 years.During the 16 reconstructed climate-periods,it was the lowest for precipitation in 1961-1990,while 1837-1860 was the highest.The reconstructed series show abrupt change at many times,with credible abrupt point appearing in 1863,1874,1890,1904,1958 and 1994.It is found that the periodic cycles about 2~4 years,16 years and 32~50 years are significant.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期1195-1202,共8页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41075066)
公益性气象行业科研专项(GYHY201106013-6-6)
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05080201)
关键词
松潘高原
树轮宽度
降水
Songpan Plateau
Tree-ring
Precipitation
