摘要
本文在度量旅游产业结构合理化和高级化的基础上,构建了旅游产业结构变动对旅游经济增长和波动作用机理的实证模型。研究结果表明,在增长效应上,旅游产业结构合理化会直接促进旅游经济增长,高级化对旅游经济增长的促进作用不显著;旅游产业结构合理化和高级化的偏效应均会对旅游经济增长产生促进作用,合理化对旅游经济增长的偏效应要远大于高级化,是推动旅游经济增长的主要动力;从发展趋势上看,旅游产业结构合理化对旅游经济增长的贡献在减弱,而高级化的贡献却在增强;在波动效应上,旅游产业结构合理化和高级化都会造成旅游经济的波动,但旅游产业结构合理化的偏效应对旅游经济波动具有抑制作用,并且作用机制稳健,是熨平旅游经济波动的主要力量,而高级化的偏效应对旅游经济波动的作用效果具有不确定性。据此,文章提出了继续深化旅游产业结构的合理化,稳妥推进旅游产业结构高级化的政策建议。
The functioning mechanism acts as the fundamental basis for industrial structure policy formulation and economic development quality enhancement. This paper develops measurement of tourism industrial structure from the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure to construct the empirical model of the functioning mechanism of tourism industrial structure change on tourism economic growth and fluctuations. Based on the panel data of 30 regions from 2000 to 2009, this paper studies the impact of tourism industry structure change on tourism economy growth and fluctuation, and four major conclusions are found. Firstly, results show that in the growth effect, rationalization, the major source of tourism economic growth, plays a much greater role than optimization. The influence of tourism industrial structure rationalization on tourism economic growth not only relies on rationalization itself but also on other factors. Rationalization directly promote economic growth on the one hand, on the other hand, it also produce a certain kind of inhibition to the tourism economy in the process of interac- tion with other factors. Secondly, rationalization proves to be the major driving force of tourism economic growth vie- wing from the partial effect. The partial effect of tourism industrial structure optimization presents positively to the e- conomic growth, but at a rather trivial degree. Thirdly,in the development trend analysis, the key driving force boos- ting tourism economic growth transits gradually from rationalization to optimization, that is, the major impetus lies in optimization. Fourthly, for the fluctuation impact, direct and indirect impact combines to take effect. In the direct im- pact, both rationalization and optimization of tourism industrial structure will increase the economic fluctuation to some extent. As for indirect effect, the interaction between rationalization, optimization and other factors will inhibit the tourism economic fluctuation in a certain way. The indirect partial effect o
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第8期104-115,共12页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目"开放性景区建设的进程
格局与机制研究"(13YJAZH075)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目"重大事件对目的地形象的影响机制研究"(11YJC790231)
上海财经大学研究生创新基金项目"基于大国优势的区域旅游产业结构调整研究"(CXJJ-2012-340)
关键词
旅游产业结构合理化
旅游产业结构高级化
旅游经济增长
旅游经济波动
作用机理
rationalization of tourism industrial structure
optimization of tourism industrial structure
tourism economic growth
tourism economic fluctuations
functioning mechanism
