摘要
传统的MNL(Multinomial Logit)模型是在假设消费者是完全理性的前提下预测消费者的选择行为,但在实际生活中,消费者往往是有限理性的。在考虑套餐的多个属性及其参考点的前提下,借鉴参考依赖模型改进传统的MNL模型,预测有限理性的消费者选择套餐的行为。另外,在各个属性参考点的设定上分别采用了两种方法。在实例分析中,对改进前后的两个模型利用某电信运营商的商务消费者的实际数据,通过SPSS软件分别进行回归分析,所得结果进一步验证了改进新模型的有效性。
Traditional MNL （Multinomial logit） model assumes that the consumers are completely rationality when predicting the choice of consumer behavior. But in actual, consumers are often limited rationality. Reference dependent model analyses the consumers＇ behavior with limited rationality, and extends the value function of prospect theory in multiple attributes. This paper will consider multiple attributes and multiple reference points, and predict the choice behavior of telecom consumers with limited rationality about packages. We will improve the traditional MNL model based on reference-dependent. In addition, we will adopt two methods to set the reference point of each attribute. Finally, in the example analysis, we will utilize the actual data of some telecom operator to analyze the original and improved models. Through the multinomial logit regression analysis using SPSS software, the results furtherly verify the effectiveness of the improved model.
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第6期78-82,共5页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(71021061)
关键词
参考点
参考依赖模型
MNL
套餐
选择行为
预测
有限理性
Reference Point
Reference Dependent Model
MNL
Packages
Choice Behavior
Predict
Limited Rationality
