摘要
本文以天津子牙循环经济产业园区为研究区域,依据京津冀(2001-2006年)统计年鉴数据和相关行业报告数据,结合京津冀地区的实际情况,采用估计模型和以社会保有量年度变化量为基础而修正过的时间梯度模型、市场供给模型、市场估计A模型和斯坦福模型,对电视机、空调、洗衣机、冰箱和电脑五大类电器所产生的电子废弃物的报废量和回收量进行预测与趋势分析,并进行比对分析。然后在此基础上以2012年为基年对预测得到的数据进行成本/收益估算,分析子牙循环经济产业区在不同区域尺度下的规模效益,思考多区域尺度环境下园区发展目标和前景。
According to the data from Statistical Yearbooks and industry reports illustrating local conditions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,estimation models were established to show the generation of obsolete PC,television,refrigerators,washing machines and air-conditioners in the period of 2001 to 2006.The factors included in these models involve sales,stock levels and lifetime of products revised.And on this basis,it forecasted and analyzed the volume of park＇s waste in 2012 to 2016,adopted cost-benefit analysis model.According to the above results,economies of scale in the different regional scale that can be analyzed.Finally,it advanced some practical and operational measures,which suited for Park and provided further support for industry plans.
出处
《特区经济》
2013年第7期66-70,共5页
Special Zone Economy
关键词
废弃资源量预测
成本
收益分析
多区域尺度
天津子牙循环经济产业区
estimation modeling for WEEE
cost-benefit analysis
different regional scale
Tianjin Ziya Circular Eco-industry Park
