摘要
利用巴音布鲁克水文站1980—2010年逐日径流量观测资料,采用线性趋势分析、多元回归分析等方法,研究了近30 a来开都河上游4—9月径流量的变化特征。同时,基于同期巴音布鲁克气象站气温、降水资料,探讨开都河上游气温与降水变化对春季径流量的影响。结果显示:开都河上游年径流量在过去30 a呈明显增加趋势。其中4—6月月平均径流量没有明显变化趋势,7—9月径流量增加明显。虽然年径流量主要分布在夏季,但年最大日径流量大多发生在春季4、5月份。进一步分析表明,前期冬季降水量与当年春季增温均对春季径流量有极显著的影响。
The hydrological response to climate change has long been a focus in scientific community.There is an evidence of significant climate change over the past decades in northwest China.It is needed to assess the effects of the change of climate variables on hydrological cycle.In this paper,the daily data of runoff volume,air temperature and precipitation at Bayanbuluk Station in the Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang during the period of 1980-2010 were collected,and the trend analysis and correlation analysis were used in the study.The result showed that there was an increase trend of average annual runoff volume in recent 30 years.Holistically,there was a slight change of runoff volume during the period from April to June,but an increase during the period from July to September.Runoff formation occurred mainly in summer,the maximum daily runoff volume occurred mostly in spring,especially in April and May.Further analyses showed that there were the significant effects of precipitation during the period from October to next March and temperature increase in spring on the extreme hydrological events in spring.
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第4期743-748,共6页
Arid Zone Research
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951001)
关键词
径流量
年最大日径流量
气温
降水
开都河
巴音郭楞蒙古自治州
新疆
runoff volume
maximum daily runoff volume
air temperature
precipitation
Kaidu River Basin
Bayingolin
Xinjiang
