摘要
如何将干热风灾害对小麦造成的产量损失从全部产量损失中提取出来,是目前小麦干热风研究的一个难点。根据小麦生物学特性以及产量结构与干热风发生规律的关系,构建了小麦作物模型,并利用河南省19812004年气象资料与小麦产量资料对模型进行了分析与验证。结果表明:利用作物模型方法得到的小麦产量损失与传统方法得到的产量损失相近,两者的标准均方根误差(NRMSE)为0.36,平均准确率为68.69%,决定系数(R2)为0.81。这表明利用小麦作物模型来提取干热风灾损是可行的,可以用于干热风非典型年份的灾害产量损失计算。
How to extract the wheat yield losses of dry hot wind disaster from the total wheat yield loss is a difficulty of related researches.On the base of the wheat biological characteristics and the relation between yield composition and dry hot wind occurrence regulation,the wheat crop model was established.The meteorological data and yield data of year 1981 to 2004 of Henan province were put into the crop model for analysis and verification.Results show： The yield loss of crop model method is similar to that of normal calculation.The NRMSE is 0.36,the average accuracy rate is 68.69%,and the adjusted linear correlation coefficient（R2） is 0.81.The results indicate that the use of wheat model to extract the hot wind disaster damage is possible.This method can be used to calculate the yield loss of atypical hot wind year.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2013年第2期10-14,共5页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006026)
中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室研究基金课题"干热风风险评估技术研究"(AMF200906)资助
关键词
小麦
干热风
作物模型
灾损提取
wheat
dry hot wind
crop model
yield loss extraction
