摘要
现有文献关于财务分析师盈余预测有效性的研究多在理论层次,实证研究则相对欠缺,尤以我国为甚。本文在对分析师盈余预测的有效性进行重新界定,并构建这一研究的基本框架的基础上,提出了两种可行的基于基本面分析的研究方式,分别是分析师对盈余构成持续性差异的区分情况以及对盈余构成定价是否具有合理性。实证检验发现,我国财务分析师能在一定程度上区分盈余构成的持续性差异,其对盈余构成的定价也比投资者更合理,因此财务分析师盈余预测在一定程度上是有效的。
The existing literatures of effectiveness of financial analyst＇s earnings forecast are the- oretical, and empirical research is relatively lacking, especially in China. In this paper, based on the redefinition of existed literatures, we redefine the effectiveness of financial analyst＇s earnings fore- cast, and establish a basic framework of research. On this basis, I propose the two possible ways based on fundamental analysis. The establishment of sustainable difference of earnings and the rea- sonability of earning＇s pricing. The empirical study shows that, to some extent, analysts can distin- guish the sustainable difference of earnings. And it is more reasonable for pricing than the inves- tors. Therefore, to a degree, financial analysfs earning forecast is effective.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第6期90-100,共11页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(12BGL032)
关键词
财务分析师
盈余预测
有效性
基本面分析
模型构建
financial analyst
earnings forecast
effectiveness
fundamental analysis
modeling
