摘要
汇率是实现经济内外均衡的调控工具,研究其对进出口贸易的影响对制定宏观经济政策有重要指导意义。本文运用AR-GARCH模型和协整理论,分析了人民币实际有效汇率波动对我国进出口贸易的影响作用。结果表明,长期内人民币实际有效汇率波动与我国进出口之间存在协整关系,但短期内影响作用不显著。
Exchange rate is a adjustive implement of reaching inward and outward equilibrium of economy.Researching the impact of exchange rate on import and export has great instructional meaning of constituting macroeconomic policy.We examine the relationship using a AR-GARCH model and co-integration theory.The result is that there is co-integration between real effective RMB exchange rate and Chinese impot and export during the long term,but not during the short term.
出处
《科技和产业》
2013年第6期116-119,150,共5页
Science Technology and Industry
