摘要
本文通过财富效应、金融加速器效应、现金流效应、托宾Q效应和预期效应机制的研究发现,资产价格的膨胀会导致总需求上升并可能导致通货膨胀。VAR模型构建的FCI指数及扩展的泰勒规则检验表明,中国的货币政策重视对流动性的控制,但是对房地产价格等资产价格关注不够,利率发挥的作用相对有限。为了做好实体经济稳定和金融稳定的平衡,货币政策应该关注资产价格,并且应该侧重于对房地产价格的调控。为此,应该研究引起资产价格波动的先行指标,构造广义价格函数作为货币政策调控的参考标准。货币当局还应该建立逆周期的干预制度,对有可能引发系统性风险的房地产、商业银行和其他影子银行体系进行系统化监管,以维持物价和资产价格的双稳定。
By making analysis on the influential mechanism of assets price on real economy in terms of wealth effect,financial accelerator effect,cash flow effect,Tobin's Q effect and expectation effect,the thesis finds that the surge of assets price may lead to the increase of aggregate demand and even the inflation.The FCI index under VAR model and the extended Taylor's rule tests show that China's monetary policy emphasizes on the mobility control yet with insufficient concerns on assets price including the real estate price.Interest rates play relatively limited roles.In order to maintain equilibrium between real economy stability and financial stability,monetary policy should be adopted with concerns on assets price and even more ones on the regulation of real estate price.It is of significance to make research on the leading indicators of assets price volatility and construct the generalized price function as the reference standard for monetary policy.The monetary authority should establish counter-cyclical intervention system to regulate the systemically important institutions such as housing company,commercial banks and other shadow banking systems in order to maintain the stability in both goods and assets price.
出处
《上海金融》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第6期46-51,117,共6页
Shanghai Finance
基金
第一作者主持的国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于消费视角的居民资产财富效应测度与调控政策研究"(71073030)
广东省高等学校高层次人才项目"基于消费视角的广东省居民资产财富效应研究"(编号:Z9991304)
国家社科基金"上市公司价值视角下的外资参股效应研究"(11BJY138)的部分研究成果
广东商学院国民经济研究中心资本市场与投融资研究创新团队的支持
