摘要
本文采用2004～2010年中国交通事故面板数据,以固定效应模型分析影响中国交通事故死亡人数的宏观和微观因素。研究表明,各地区的经济发展水平、交通基础设施、医疗卫生条件和交通法规完善程度与道路交通事故伤亡率呈反向变动;随着机动车密度上升,道路交通事故伤亡率呈下降趋势;驾驶人行为是影响中国道路交通事故死亡的首要因素,而人口结构也是影响道路交通事故人员伤亡率的重要因素之一。
Based on the Chinese traffic accident data from 2004 to 2010, we establish the fixed panel model to analyze the factors affecting the number of traffic casualties in China. We put 31 provinces into three groups： eastern, central, and west. Our analysis shows that there is a reverse relationship between economic development level and fatalities. The level of economic development, transportation infrastructure, health conditions and traffic regulations perfecting level have an negative influence on the road traffic accident casualty rate. With the motor vehicle density increasing, casualty rate of road traffic accidents population goes down. We find that drivers＇ behavior is the most important factors affecting road traffic casualties in China. Moreover, population structure is an important factor affecting the rate of road traffic accident casualties.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期1-7,共7页
Forecasting
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171113)
关键词
交通事故
伤亡人数
面板数据
traffic accidents
number of casualties
panel data
