摘要
为进一步探明复杂系统事故致因机制,提供安全控制新策略,在描述"认知-约束"模型的具体应用步骤和系统风险熵测度模型的基础上,针对简化的事故致因网络,构建复杂系统事故致因网络中风险熵传递的Arena仿真模型。模拟得到风险熵的动态变化曲线及关键节点内的风险熵处置过程曲线,进一步考量节点不同免疫概率对整个网络风险熵处置能力的影响。研究结果表明,基于静态网络结构所得到的重要节点并不是影响网络性能的关键节点,致因节点重要度评估必须同时考虑网络的静态结构以及动态的风险熵传递。
In order to further prove up the accident causation mechanism of complex system and provide effective tactics for safety control, on the basis of describing the idiographic application steps of the cognition-constraint model built by the authors before and system risk entropy definition, an Arena simula- tion model was built for the risk entropy dynamic transmission in a simplified accident causation network. Dynamic data on risk entropy in the network, and the data on risk entropy treatment process in key nodes were obtained by Arena simulation. Influences of node immunity probability on network risk entropy treatment ability were studied. Research results show that the key node confirmed according to static net- work structure does not conform to reality, the identification of the key causation node must consider both of the static network structure and the dynamic risk transmission process.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期27-32,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71171199)
