摘要
当前我国的碳减排是一种"相对减排",即碳强度的减排。实现碳排放总量的减排,或者说"绝对减排",还需要相当长的时间。目前很多发达国家碳排放都已跨过峰值点,从"相对减排"到"绝对减排",在不同的环境和背景下走出了形形色色的道路,积累了很多宝贵的发展经验。研究这些国家的发展历史,可以为我国低碳经济的进一步发展提供客观而可靠的理论依据。本文从现有的文献出发,基于环境库兹涅茨曲线研究了经济发展过程中碳排放与碳生产率的变化规律,进而将碳排放划分为碳排放积累阶段、碳相对减排阶段和碳绝对减排阶段等三个阶段。美国、日本、英国等八个主要发达国家1850-2010年的历史数据很好地验证了这一变化规律,这些国家基本上都跨进了碳排放的绝对减排阶段,而我国正处于且未来几十年里仍将处于碳排放的相对减排阶段。汲取他国经验,突出本国特色,充分利用后发优势,大幅度提高碳生产率水平,是我国从"相对减排"通往"绝对减排"的关键所在。
The present situation of China＇s carbon emissions reduction is a kind of ＇relative reduction＇, namely the reduction of carbon intensity. It still needs quite a long time to realize the reduction of total carbon emissions, or ＇ absolute reduction＇ At present many developed countries have crossed the peak point of their carbon emission. From ＇ relative reduction＇ to ＇ absolute reduction＇ , these countries stepped out different kinds of routes due to the different environment and background, and accumulated a lot of valuable experience. Studying the development process of these countries will provide objective and reliable theoretical basis for the further development of low-carbon economy for our country. Based on existing literature, according to the environmental Kuznets curve, this paper reveals the law of carbon productivity and carbon emissions during the economic development. According to the law, this paper divides the whole carbon emission cycle into three stages ： the carbon accumulation stage, the relative reduction stage and the absolute reduction stage. Historical data of the United State, Japan, the United Kingdom and other eight major developed countries from 1850 to 2010 commendably validated the law. While the major developed countries have almost all stepped into the absolute reduction stage, our country now is still in the relative reduction stage and will remain in the next few decades. From ＇ relative reduction＇ to ＇ absolute reduction＇, it＇ s an important breakthrough of low-carbon economy for China to improve the level of carbon productivity dramatically by learning the experiences from other countries, playing China＇ s own national characteristics and taking full use of advantage of backwardness.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期46-51,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社科基金项目"我国低碳经济发展路径与政策研究"(编号:10BJL034)
华中科技大学博士学位论文创新基金"从相对减排通往绝对减排的路径选择--基于碳生产率增长与其影响因素的研究"
关键词
碳生产率
环境库兹涅茨曲线
相对减排
绝对减排
carbon productivity
the environmental Kuznets curve
relative reduction
absolute reduction
