摘要
根据1961—2011年长江流域116个气象站点的逐日气象资料,应用Penman-Monteith法计算该流域的潜在蒸散量,在此基础上使用反距离加权(IDW)插值、M-K突变检验、Morlet小波分析和R/S趋势分析等方法对该流域潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明:近51年来长江流域潜在蒸散量年际变化倾向率为-0.34mm·a-1,空间分布上表现为由西向东先减小后增大的趋势;从潜在蒸散量的季节变化来看,除秋季增加趋势比较明显外,其他各季均表现为不同程度的减小趋势,总体表现为夏季>秋季>春季>冬季;通过M-K突变检验和小波分析发现,全年潜在蒸散量的突变发生在1980年前后,年潜在蒸散量出现了准12年左右的第一主周期和准4年左右的第二主周期;R/S分析表明,除了降水量之外,其他气候因子与潜在蒸散量的变化都与过去保持持续的趋势一致性。
Based on the daily meteorological data from 116 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River basin of China in 1961-2011, and by using the Penman-Monteith method recommended by the FAO, this paper calculated the potential evapotranspiration in the basin. In the meantime, the methods of inverse distance-weighted interpolation, Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and rescaled range analysis were adopted to study the spatiotemporal variation patterns of the potential evapotranspiration. In recent 51 years, the inter-annual change tendency rate of the potential evapotranspiration in the whole basin was -0.34 mm ~ a-~ Spatially, the potential evapotranspiration had an increased trend after an initial decrease from west to east. Temporally, the potential evapotranspiration presented an obvious increasing trend in autumn, but a decreasing trend in spring, summer, and winter, with an overall tendency of summer 〉 autumn 〉 spring 〉 winter. The M-K mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis showed that the yearly potential evapotranspiration mutation happened around 1980, and the departure sequence vibration of the potential evapotranspiration frequency was primary quasi 12 years and secondary quasi 4 years. The rescaled range analysis showed that except precipitation, all the test climate factors had the same variation trend with the potential evapotranspiration as that in the past.
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期1292-1302,共11页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41161012
41240001)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-10-0019)
甘肃省高等学校基本科研业务费项目资助
关键词
长江流域
潜在蒸散量
气候因子
趋势
Yangtze River basin
potential evapotranspiration
climatic factor
tendency.
