摘要
自上世纪90年代以后,中国的服务业经济发展十分迅速,这与我国一直以来支持服务业发展政策密切相关。同时,由于统计口径的改革,也使得我国的服务业数据变动较大,因此对于服务业未来发展情况做出准确判断尤为关键。本文研究中所采用的"服务业"为2005年12月20日国家统计局对中国服务业统计调整后的数据。针对我国2008-2012年服务业的数据,该阶段的预测属于短期预测,可以采用灰度预测模型;2013-2050年的预测属于中长期预测,可以采用ARMA模型,同时利用宏观计量模型对数据进行修正。本文的研究结果对我国未来服务业发展提供了科学依据。
After 90＇, the development of Chinese service industry is rapid, because our country has been supporting service industry development. At the same time, because the statistical data reform, it makes our country service industry data changes, so in the future making accurate judgment is the key action. This article studies the data which is adjusted data on the December 20th of 2005 by National Statistical Bureau of China. In view of our country service industry data, we believe that the 2008-2012 service industry forecast which is the short-term forecast by gray prediction model and 2013- 2050 year which is predicted to belong to the middle and long term prediction by the ARMA model, while the use of macro econometric model for adjustment. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for future service industry development.
出处
《科技促进发展》
2013年第1期19-25,共7页
Science & Technology for Development
